The Leno Lesson

So NBC screwed up.

Programming execs tried to plan for the future five years ago but the future is never predictable. Just try to remember what life was like five years ago and see if you could have predicted the ways things are today.

Ironically, the announcement that Jay Leno’s abysmal 10 pm eastern weeknight version of his old Tonight Show, was broken by the most trusted name in news.

TMZ!

I’m being a little sarcastic here, but not that much.

In a world that sees The National Enquirer and TMZ taking all the risks and usually being right, who could have imagined years ago that CNN, ABC, AP – somebody traditional – would be cutting back so much that they forgot to search for the news?

If these traditional news sources are missing fluff stories such as entertainment news, you can only imagine what they are missing on the health care debate or homeland security.

George Stephanopoulos put his foot in his mouth prior to the weekend when he let Rudy Giuliani get away with factual errors. To his credit Stephanopoulos later apologized and took full responsibility for the botched interview.

Back to the Leno mess.

NBC thought it could see the future from their 30 Rock offices and predicted Leno would be too old to attract desirable demographics by 2009 so they came up with the masterful plan to retire Leno as they knighted his heir apparent Conan O’Brien to takeover The Tonight Show.

Of course, NBC affiliates knew better but hey, who asked them?

The Boston affiliate balked at running Leno at 10 pm and he was whipped back into shape with the threat of having his NBC affiliation yanked.

He turned out to be right.

You see, the media industry has it backwards. Media execs think all entertainment trends start in their offices. They need to get out more often, it seems.

Now Leno is going off at 10 pm as local affiliates are tired of losing the late local news ratings to such a weak lead in. And with Comcast coming in to take over operating control of NBC Universal (and who could have predicted that five years ago), Comcast was attracted to NBC's
content not necessarily the savings NBC U parent GE absolutely needed.

The latest NBC screw up in the making is to put Leno on for only a half hour at 11:30 eastern presumably on the strength of his monologue and one guest. And Conan at 12 midnight to attract younger demos. This is the media version of being half-pregnant.

If NBC is trying to push O’Brien out, that was unforeseen as well since they signed him to a long, lucrative contract to be the next Jay Leno. Conan could wind up on Fox or, less likely, on ABC. What a mess.

One thing is certain – Leno will be on for at least a half hour and maybe the entire Tonight Show again if O'Brien bolts. Conan O'Brien's fate will become known after he negotiates with NBC and its competitors.

Lessons anyone?

1. You don’t separate talent from their audience when they are still getting ratings and generating revenue and The Tonight Show was number one in both. Attention radio consolidators: this means you, too.

2. No one can see the future – just future possibilities. That’s why five-year business plans are out and contingency plans should be in. What NBC should have looked for is options. Options if Jay lost his ratings. If his audience got too old and it affected sales. If Conan got restless and threatened to leave. Attention radio consolidators: Warren Buffett buys the management of the businesses he likes and keeps it in place. Good management is always studying contingencies.

3. When you fail to let consumers have their way, your reward is to go down by having it your way. It happens all the time in the media business. NBC has a bigger mess than it would ever have had if it programmed to the audiences’ liking. Radio CEOs have severed the ties between local radio, and its news and personalities in the name of Wall Street and look where it has gotten them? Bankruptcy.

4. Even the mighty Apple CEO Steve Jobs isn’t foolish enough to deliver products to the marketplace the way he necessarily wants them delivered. Becoming consumer driven is a forgotten skill of media companies. They used to know how to please audiences, but have been distracted by trying to assuage their own egos and pay homage to the lenders that prop them up.

The Leno lesson is quite clear to those who will listen.

Or to put it in the lingo of the fabulous Texas journalist, the late Molly Ivins, “You’ve got to dance with them that brung you”.

NBC needed to dance with their affiliates.

NBC programming "genius" Jeff Zucker needed to respect the power of a Tonight Show that was number one in ratings and revenue. He could have readied contingency plans but not act on assumptions.

Radio consolidators paid inflated prices that Wall Street banks were all too happy to fund, but they needed to go with the management, programming, sales and marketing people and policies that made radio a business that attracted large investors.

One more thing.

While the newspaper business was trying to figure out how to deal with its nemesis, the Internet, a brash LA attorney, Harvey Levin, started his own publication – TMZ.

While the Times and the Journal negotiated cost savings by cutting their newsrooms, Arianna Huffington launched her own cost-effective online Huffington Post – now an online news alternative for millions of readers.

Five years ago, who knew?

Proving once again that the future occurs in the present and is not predictable in any way, shape or form.

The only thing that is predictable is that any fool who sees the future and takes his or her eyes off the consumer will lose.

Can you say radio?

The record business?

Newspapers?

And now TV?

Thank you, NBC for giving the Harvard Business School another case study for how not to run a media business.

The question is -- is the lesson written off to pop culture or are we going to study it?

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Best Radio Groups for 2010

For months now, I’ve been running a poll on my website for “The Best & Worst” Radio Groups. On December 31, the voting ended and the winners and losers have been clearly established. Click here to see the final results.

What’s more important as we enter a new year – not soon enough for all of us – is why the best are the best and why the worst couldn’t make the grade.

Even over the holiday weekend, several of the “worst” were firing people – Happy New Year!

What is critical for those of us who want to transcend the rubble of consolidated broadcasting is to understand what qualities make media companies excellent.

Over the weekend, I was reminded once again of the gold standard for great management, Peter Drucker. In an article in the LA Times, Drucker was quoted on the anniversary of 100 years after his birth and a few short years following his death as being right on the money -- again.

Let’s learn from the master of management:

In 1974 Drucker wrote,"The business enterprise is a creature of a society and an economy, and society or economy can put any business out of existence overnight …The enterprise exists on sufferance and exists only as long as the society and the economy believe that it does a necessary, useful, and productive job."



But that’s not what radio is doing.

In small markets, radio stations tend to stay connected with their communities doing a useful and productive job. But you can’t say that about most of the radio groups that follow their leaders – Clear Channel, Cumulus and Citadel.

Voice tracking, fewer local personalities, networked repeater radio, virtually no news and out of town weather watchers, a lack of commitment to the public interest – this adds up to a formula for failure if you listen to Drucker.

Note what Drucker is saying – the economy or society can put any business out of existence overnight. No matter how smug Fagreed Suleman is that he has bankrupted Citadel and become dictator for life, Drucker is likely to be right.

As the excellent LA Times piece points out, Drucker showed that there is no "inherent contradiction between profit and a company's need to make a social contribution," but that the former is indispensable to achieve the latter. He also warned that an enterprise that fails to "think through its impacts and its responsibilities" exposes itself to justified attack from social forces.

We know social contribution is a joke in the radio industry today. But it wasn’t always that way.

In pre-consolidation days, radio was new technology. It’s how parents and students heard school closings, how news was delivered, how people bonded with their local communities. It’s how local businesses got the word out at a price they could afford. Radio was entertainment and information but even more importantly it was the original social network even before Facebook, MySpace and Twitter.

It's still that way in smaller markets where some owners continue to do radio right.

Consolidators seem to forget this. As the LA Times article emphasized:



"Peter was talking about this in the 1950s," or long before corporate social responsibility became a formalized management principle, says Rick Wartzman, a former Times colleague who is executive director of the Drucker Institute at Claremont Graduate University. 

His views placed him in conflict with classical economists of the Milton Friedman stripe, who considered profit maximization the be-all and end-all of corporate behavior. 



Profit may be the motivating force of the businessman, Drucker wrote, but it fails as "an explanation of his behavior or his guide to right action." Worse, this narrow view of the corporation's role inspires the hostility toward profit that is "among the most dangerous diseases of an industrial society."

So, Fagreed’s bean counting, Dickey’s reinventing the wheel and Clear Channel’s operation of the world’s largest radio group in the image of any other buy out that parent company Lee & Bain runs is in trouble if you believe Drucker and not the three blind mice.

Drucker’s concept was that a business exists to serve the customer by providing an outstanding service in both personal and social arenas.

Yet, consolidated radio companies focus on cost cutting and squeezing out profit and show by their actions and their operating budgets that they can ignore the Internet, mobile content, social networking, local radio and on and on.

And this is important because when the big “C” groups screw up, as incredible as it may seem, smaller groups follow by accepting and installing their misguided concepts. Look no further than voice tracking or repeater radio for evidence.

No radio group has even a 3% budget for Internet and/or digital – that’s amazing seeing as they sat out the Internet revolution and are now signaling that they will sit out the mobile Internet revolution that will be the growth business of the next ten years.

And what makes a good CEO?

Again, Drucker is compelling:



"Every CEO, it seems, has to be made to look like a dashing Confederate cavalry general or a boardroom Elvis Presley," he wrote in 1988. But real leadership "has little to do with 'leadership qualities'; and even less to do with 'charisma.' It is mundane, unromantic, and boring. Its essence is performance." 



Fagreed’s insufferable arrogance?

Lew Dickey’s need to wear his Harvard breeding on his sleeve?

John Hogan’s surprise that he actually got the job running the world's biggest radio group?

Drucker has taught that real leaders show respect for people and their work.

Oops.

Not in most radio companies and our poll of who you think are The Best & Worst Radio Groups seems to bear this out.

Peter Drucker also warned that excessive and abusive executive compensation is one of the main things that destroy this trust and we all know that Dickey and Suleman are making millions while they are cutting back employees in a bad economy.

Drucker said 20 to 25 times what their average workers earn is appropriate compensation for a CEO. Drucker said that then – years ago – but today the likes of Dickey and Suleman make hundreds of times what their workers make.

Hundreds of times what their workers make -- even as they fire and fire again!

On executive compensation in 2004, Drucker said:

"It can only lead to political measures that, while doing no one any good, can seriously harm society, economy, and the manager as well … there is no excuse for it. No justification. This is morally and socially unforgivable, and we will pay a heavy price for it."



Drucker preferred the humble CEO – one that was selected from within the company presumably not one born into it or imported as an outside hired hand.

The good news is that radio has three groups that have excelled in many areas of excellence and I would like to commend their CEOs.

Bonneville, Cox and CBS.

Bonneville's Bruce Reese is an outstanding executive with people skills, humility and commitment to radio and radio people (both of these are important because a commitment to radio without radio’s finest talent is an empty commitment in my view).

Cox's Bob Neil gets your vote and mine as an excellent operator. He trains, nurtures and respects his employees. He leads them in difficult times by using his brains and compassion.

CBS' Dan Mason has a tough job running a radio division that is part of a company that also owns television. But he had made many smart format decisions and when he has had to fire (and he has) it has been handled better that most big companies. Mason has more of a leg up on new media -- perhaps the only major broadcaster to understand that there is no future for radio companies without the next generation.

Even these three "best" radio companies are still woefully insufficient in the digital future. They do not commit adequate budgets to webcasting, podcasting, mobile content and social networking as warranted by today’s business and sociological climate. Here's hoping that changes.

Apple is about ready to unleash its tablet entertainment system and radio can’t seem to find the will to commit great sums to developing brands and pioneering content and marketing in the digital future.

Of course, radio companies that will want to grow beyond terrestrial radio and avoid the coming decline of a former growth industry will have to step up.

But there is no taking away from Reese, Neil and Mason that they are exemplary radio operators worthy of emulation.

I love the Men’s Health feature that says, “Eat This Not That” that goes on to tell you the healthy choices between two popular foods each month.

For radio, “Do This Not That” seems appropriate.

Be Bruce, Bob and Dan.

Not Suleman, Dickey and Hogan.

And if you mean it, then do more to reject voice tracking, do local shows, rehire morning personalities, add local news done from local stations back into the format, have local sales staffs, train your people, respect and nurture everyone who works for you, compensate yourself 20-25 times more than your worker bees, serve the public interest convenience and necessity, stop complaining about the economy it’s going to be a challenge for years to come and for God’s sake …

Even the best in radio can do better is these areas.

And for goodness sakes, get into the digital future even if you are ten years too late.

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20 Days Until My Media Solutions Lab ...

My God, does anyone really get what's going on in media today?

NBC recants and puts Jay Leno back on the Tonight Show after his failed 10 pm experiment that was designed to -- well, to save money.

It didn't work.

But Comcast came along and agreed to buy NBC Universal -- Comcast was interested in -- content. So you'll see NBC in the programming business again after some ugly mopping up around the annointed "next one" Conan O'Brien.

Why is it that all too often we don't understand the consumer?

And that's why I am doing my Media Solutions Lab.

For the first time in the history of the media business, anyone can enter and win. The big companies may have access to investment funds, but they are bankrupt when it comes to understanding their audience and on innovative ideas.

So we'll talk about this groundswell that I know you can feel -- with Apple leading the way. Apple will enter the mobile TV business, steaming music for monthly subscription fees and will offer a platform anyone can access with all the infrastructure available to create a growth business.

Here are some of the benefits of attending my Media Solutions Lab:

Webcasting -- How webcasting is about to take the proverbial fork in the road -- you'll know which direction and why the present 24/7 "radio" model will fail.

Podcasting -- how to get listeners to download you and how to make money without even running a radio-type commercial or charging fees. You're going to like this -- and you can do it -- within one to three months.

Radio -- How to extend the life of your radio format and brand while finding new life in the digital age. We'll get specific.

Publishing --- Why you'll want to get in -- now that the Apple iTunes tablet platform is available. Get in if you're a station, company, individual -- there's money to be made and I'm going to get you excited about it.

Management Skills -- You know you'll have to adapt to be part of the digital future but why guess? Learn what's in the master's DNA -- see how Steve Jobs reads his audience, motivates his people, stays ahead of competitors. I'll go down a list of new skills you'll need and show you how to start acquiring the ones you don't presently have.

Mobile Media -- Look around, the entertainment system is replacing the radio in the car. Have you seen the entertainment system Audi is putting in their cars? Touch pads, Wiki directions, voice commands and screens that show maps, movies. My attendees are going to get a view of the future and not be left out.

Do-It-Yourself Advertiser Content -- Advertisers are beginning to bypass traditional media and go directly to consumers with content, sales and marketing. Their budgets may be tied up in apps that drive consumers to special marketing in stores and elsewhere. They need ideas. What an opportunity.

Brainstorming Skills -- You'll need them whether you work alone or with other people. I am going to demonstrate the system I taught to students at USC and show you how to do it yourself if you'd like.

Media Startups -- I'll have three for you. We may come up with more as a group. If you're looking for ideas, the Lab is the place.

Paid Content -- It's coming. I've predicted a lot of things over the years (thank God most have come true) and I'm saying it as bluntly as I can -- the free Internet, although still very much free, is on its way to a paid model. Consumers will have to pay for what they want by the end of the next decade and they'll pay taxes on things they are now getting tax free. If you're running a business, you need to track this -- at the very least.

Social Networking -- What is next after Facebook and Twitter? Is it more ways to communicate fewer words or will social networking be a prerequisite to all marketing and communication? Radio owners cringe when I say the talk radio of the future is -- texting. A generation obsessed with what they think not what a talk show host thinks. Are you ready for this discussion?

An Action Plan -- All this means nothing if you don't come away with a personal Action Plan. If you're running a media entity, how to keep it on track. If you want to start one, how to increase the odds of succeeding. Panels and paid speakers will not do in this digital age. Heck, anything other than a media solutions lab would be, well -- another convention. We'll have none of that.

So if you want to come go break your bosses' door down.

If you are the boss, what are you waiting for?

There are some "$200-off seats" left until they're gone. Lock one in here.

On-site Westin Hotel rates are now reduced 50% so enjoy the 70 degrees and sun in Scottsdale while you're working. Call (800) 354-5892 and request the "social catering rate" for Jerry Del Colliano's Media Solutions Lab. Or call Debra at 480-624-1348.

Want cheaper digs -- here's a current site with hotels (and comparative prices) very close to the Westin meeting location -- click here.

Let's work face-to-face in an atmosphere of approval and acceptance -- together, learning from each other.

Invest in you -- the future is here now.

Register for my Media Solutions Lab here.

Pandora and Pioneer Together

Tuesday I was at the Mayo Clinic Scottsdale having a very minor procedure performed when the doctor asked me, "what kind of music do you want to hear?"

I was not interested in hearing the usual Mayo strings or that sort of fare, but she added, "We have Pandora -- what kind of music do you like?"

I said R&B.

Then a nurse rattled off a number of R&B genres and I interrupted by saying, "type in Jerry Butler, the ice man".

I know the power of Pandora!

Within seconds, I heard "Mr. Dream Merchant" followed by other great songs in the genre. She was finished in a few minutes -- too few if you can believe that -- but I wanted to stay and listen to more Pandora.

They raved about it and I've got to say that this doesn't surprise me. With 40 million fans, my USC students were absolutely clairvoyant a few years ago when they saw this phenomenon coming. It's not nice to ignore the next generation's media whims.

And that's really the issue.

Tim Westergren, Pandora's founder, has spent over ten years innovating while terrestrial radio and music executives have been spending that same time obsessing over building a cheaper mouse trap.

Westergren was forced to humiliate himself to go begging for continued financing when his seed money dried up. Then he had a close call with the record industry's lunatic fringe that wanted to charge high royalties to the money webcasting business. That could have permanently put Pandora out of business.

Pandora survived and is now poised to become the "new" radio thanks to the rise of the mobile Internet.

You've noticed, perhaps, that radio is far from a growth business as consolidators are going down to bankruptcy at a pretty fast pace.

Then, yesterday -- this news from one of the best media writers in the industry, The Wall Street Journal's Sarah McBride.

Pandora and Pioneer, the components manufacturer, announced at the annual Consumer Electronics Show that they had a deal that would make it easier for in-car listening to Pandora through a new entertainment system that will be manufactured by Pioneer.

Sarah points out that no money changed hands because both Westergren and his counterparts at Pioneer knew a good thing when they saw it.

It's a win-really win proposition.

The radio industry has had over a decade to prepare for the advent of mobile Internet radio and they did nothing. Spent nothing. Learn nothing. Three radio companies are bankrupt and experts say that is the end of it.

In March, Pioneer will sell their new system that --- well, let Sarah McBride tell you ...

"...that allows Pandora users who stream the service on their Apple Inc. iPhones to easily access Pandora in their cars. The $1,200 navigation system, announced today at the Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas, will detect iPhones and iPod touches that have Pandora installed, and put the consumer's Pandora settings on the navigation screen. That will allow drivers to hear their favorite Pandora radio channels".

Do yourself a favor when you have a moment and read the rest of her report -- here.

Satellite radio -- over.

Forget 18.5 million listeners paying $12.95 a month (less for second and third listening devices).

Satellite had a chance to innovate but all it did was eliminate commercials and do cheap programming. Howard Stern and sports rights cost them a fortune but 90% of their channels were and are unremarkable.

Sirius XM is betting that Internet availability will also make them competitive in the world of mobile Internet listening but they and their terrestrial predecessors just don't get it.

Pandora is new technology.

New genomes for detecting listener likes and dislikes.

The best radio can come up with is this cockamamie concept of listener driven radio where songs can be shut off in the middle of airplay when the station detects some or most of their listeners have heard enough. That's just not going to work with individuals who can have better at Pandora.

The lessons here are so many and you can bet we'll be discussing this at my Media Solutions Lab at the end of this month.

Radio and record execs think they can cram their products and services into digital age devices. Had Tim Westergren thought like that, there would never have been a Pandora ready to ride the wildly expansive growth of mobile Internet radio.

And all fun aside as we kid the clueless radio execs here in this space, this is a serious problem. I'm not even in the mood to joke or poke fun at these guys today.

Hell, there is absolutely no innovation going on in terrestrial radio and the record business -- none.

I've got bad news for them -- mobile Internet will not be a friendly home for rehashed concepts.

To give you a little preview of what I am going to lay on my Solutions Lab attendees regarding this issue ...

... That being in the music playlist business (with or without voice tracking) is a non-starter in the Internet space where customized music mixes will always be more desirable. Playing to PPM is a joke -- playing to fans is the real goal.

... That cost-conscious radio groups firing their talent and turning thousands of stations into virtual iPods (playing their music playlist not each individual's favorites) took radio out of the game.

... That for those of you -- my very bright readers who think there are opportunities ahead in Internet radio beyond terrestrial stations dumping existing formats on the web and mobile content, podcasting, social networking sites -- well, you would be right.

Knowing how to innovate is now the mission -- not lamenting the fools who frittered away the best talent that could have been their entree to mobile Internet radio.

May I be blunt?

24/7 Internet radio stations are not the future.

Special programming, shorter duration, customized programming built around a community is.

I've told this story before so forgive me as I tell it to my new readers:

When Tim Westergren talked to some of my adoring students at USC, they were indignant and sometimes outright rude that he called Pandora -- radio. They hate radio. Think it's tainted. One class beat Tim up for almost two hours until this gentleman turned to them and said, "what would you call it instead"?

No one had a viable answer.

Today we see that Westergren really wanted to redefine radio for another generation -- and in too few years when people think of "radio" they will think of Pandora and streaming sites to come not Donny Osmond on 65 terrestrial radio stations looking to save money.

Pandora has not only changed the meaning of the term radio but changed the meaning of radio.

Smart money gets out of the music playlist business because they are going to lose.

The future, then, is in personality and information driven mobile content -- and right now we're taking applications looking for the next Tim Westergren.

As I said, Internet radio -- not your consolidator's Internet radio -- is big on our agenda at my upcoming Media Solutions Lab. Try to join us. We've got some interesting people attending.

And I want to share the news that staying at the on-site hotel just got almost 50% cheaper.

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Westin Reduces Media Solutions Lab Hotel Rates

The Westin Kierland hotel in Scottsdale has now reduced the price of staying on-site for the upcoming Media Solutions Lab to $259 for weekdays. This is a result of registration activity.

If you have already registered at the Westin Kierland at a rate higher than $259 per night, you can call (800) 354-5892 and request the "social catering rate" for Jerry Del Colliano's Media Solutions Lab. Caution: do not cancel your current reservation confirmation until the Westin issues you a new confirmation at the $259 rate.

If you are staying elsewhere for the event and would like to stay on-site at the Westin Kierland Scottsdale, call (800) 354-5892 and request the "social catering rate" for Jerry Del Colliano's Media Solutions Lab. Once you have a Westin confirmation at the $259 rate, you may cancel your offsite reservation.

You always have the option of checking this handy hotel reference site to monitor the best rates and act appropriately -- click here.

Some registrants who have decided to stay longer and enjoy 70 degrees and sunny this cold winter have asked for a special Westin promotion in which you pay the standard going rate for the first night and then the last two digits of the year of your birth for the additional two nights -- so if you were born in, say, 1962 -- the second and third nights would cost $62 per night.

You also have the option of using Starwood points to reduce the rates further.

But look, there are few places you can get the background necessary to be part of the digital future. The Media Solutions Lab is not a convention. You won't see one speaker after the other pontificating. And I can tell you there will be no sponsors to sell you anything, no one with an agenda. The format is so unique and fresh, I think you'll love it. I've done many times before and attendees are moved to action.

The magic is in how we work together. I have done my homework and I bring you into the mix. My motto is "the teacher and the taught together do the teaching". I promise we will cover 14 of the most meaningful, relevant learning modules now at the start of this new year.

You're not going to get this at a traditional convention, confab or seminar.

The Apple tablet is looming over all the changes we see ahead -- I'll tell you all I know about it and the possibilities of you making money from this exciting new platform.

Internet radio is the big story for the next five years and yet terrestrial radio people think Internet radio is radio online.

No.

No.

No.

It is Pandora and the streaming music service I believe Apple will soon offer -- things like that. There is no way around having to be an innovator.

That lets a lot of radio CEOs out, but it provides you with many new opportunities.

But you'll have to be open to them. Sacrifice a bit. Invest in yourself to get to this refresher. Find ways to connect with people who know the future.

I can hardly wait to tell you about a business concept that will be yours and yours alone -- based on the Internet and something you can do with advertisers to unlock it.

There's lots of benefits. I hope you'll take a moment to study the program here.

I've got a few "$200-off seats" as part of the pre-event pricing. If you want one, lock it in here.

And now you can stay on site at almost 50% less -- scroll down after clicking here.

Many, many more thousands of people read me today than in the old glory days of Inside Radio for which I am very grateful.

That proves to me you are looking ahead -- ready to adapt and gain new skills. It would be my honor to be of help January 28th and beyond.

Register here.

A Look at Bankrupt Radio's Playbook

Regent missed a $1,269,125.73 payment to lenders, it was revealed yesterday.

Regent has been working with their lenders since last spring, but now the cash ran dry and Regent could neither pay any of the interest or principal due.

Regent also missed the payment of so-called professional fees and that has got to really irk their lenders. Don't mess with their fees.

What's interesting is that if Regent has been in default for nine months, it doesn't seem like the lenders want the company.

They may have no choice but to take it back, but if someone's not paying you in a timely fashion for that long and you're letting them get away with it, it illustrates the sorry state consolidators have gotten themselves into. Read Regent's SEC confessional here.

Regent stock is now worth just 19 cents a share. Regent execs are spinning it as an attempt to conserve cash.

Ya think?

Here's another nice mess Regent has gotten themselves into.

I thought it might be helpful to look behind the scenes at radio group bankruptcy plans now that Citadel and NextMedia have filed.

Regent was expected -- the vultures were circling the carcass for some time now.

And Regent won't be the last bankrupt radio group.

So, I thought I'd handicap the latest bankruptcy potential for radio group owners and at the same time try to provide a little context to what they may be thinking and hoping will happen:

1. You've probably noticed radio consolidators talking up a recovery -- even alluding to better performance than last year. They've somehow managed to confuse some of the loyal trade press into thinking the worst is over. The reality is that radio groups will be comparing 2010 with God awful revenue figures for 2009 so the losses will have to look better. But they would be fortunate to have one "plus" quarter even with the easy comparisons with last year.

2. All the CEOs have been nicely tucked into bed in advance of whatever should happen so you don't have to lose any sleep over it. Emmis recently rehired CEO Jeff Smulyan even though Emmis is a potential chapter 11 candidate. Lee & Bain have John Hogan tied up (God, that sounds good, doesn't it?) for the foreseeable future even though Clear Channel is nowhere near out of the woods. Lew Dickey took that huge long-term package a few years ago that was supposed to convince him to sign a new contract. Disingenuous at best. Fagreed Suleman was rewarded for so ably steering Citadel right into bankruptcy with a contract and job security with the lenders who took back the company. So rest well -- the CEOs have their money all tucked away in advance of whatever bankruptcy will bring.

3. Prepackaged bankruptcies are the new growth businesses for lenders. When bankrupt radio groups run out of money, they look to Fagreed Suleman for leadership -- how scary is that? The Citadel prepackaged bankruptcy lets the failed CEO negotiate to save his neck while giving up whatever pennies were going to go to shareholders. Bankruptcy courts just rubber stamp the deals and then within six to nine months allow the new owner/lender to work their way out of chapter 11. It's pure genius. Shareholders get wiped out. The original equity holders lose their stake (i.e., Forstmann Little of Citadel) and the banks get the company.

4. I saw an Inside Radio survey recently that said most radio people who responded feel their jobs are safe. The article said, "Half (51%) of the respondents to the Inside Radio reader survey expect the number of employees at their station or cluster will remain the same in the coming months — a far cry from a year ago when 56% were bracing for layoffs. While a quarter say that’s still possible in 2010, an optimistic 24% say it’s likely their station will actually begin to fill positions that have been vacant. Last year just 11% thought they’d see staff increases". I'm afraid that's more wishful thinking even if it is understandable.

5. There is only one thing ahead -- cutbacks.

6. There is only one thing that can be cut back -- jobs.

7. Most agency people believe advertisers will spend the same amount as last year -- and that was way down. However -- and this is very significant -- they will start to shift that "decreased" spend more to new media which has been growing even through the recession. Thus, the one thing radio groups teetering on the brink badly need -- more cash flow -- will elude them again this year. And, to make it worse, refer to number 6 above -- they are reducing their local sales staffs to save money. The imperfect storm.

8. Bankruptcy may be what we fear but it is a mercy killing for many of the failed CEOs who are out of luck, out of time and, of course, out of money. Bankruptcy is the only answer because it allows most if not all of their debt to be wiped out and with a prearranged bankruptcy, the lenders take control in an orderly way with the very CEO that got them into the mess running the new entity. As the old saying goes, "Better the devil you know than the devil you don't."

9. The end game (I know you've been waiting for this) isn't to stop the bleeding. Bankruptcy does that. A radio station really isn't that expensive to run especially with few people left and no personalities. The end game is to prune down the expenses even more and resell the stations as soon as the economy comes back. Notice how no one is rushing to buy radio stations in this economy even at under 5x cash flow -- way under.

10. Stations will start selling within one to three years and yes, the lenders will only get 3 times cash flow if they are lucky. And, yes buyers will be purchasing a lot of distressed properties with most of their assets (management, sales and talent) squandered. New media will continue to appeal to the younger audience now coming of age. Nevertheless, there will be some good money to be made by lenders when they sell these assets -- and remember, someone has to finance the deals (so guess who can hold the paper?).

My friends, when radio became all business and no show it was the death knell.

Not the economy.

Not the iPod (or even the iTablet when it comes).

Not Pandora.

This ending was guaranteed when suckers with big egos agreed to big interest payments based on unrealistic multiples (10 times or more) that lenders, oddly enough, never questioned.

Why didn't lenders in the early days of consolidation pressure these suckers to negotiate for true multiples of streaming cash flow?

Now we know, don't we?

Just as in Monopoly, the bank is never the one to go bankrupt.

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Paid Content Is Coming

Are you watching what happened over the holiday between Rupert Murdoch and his News Corp in their battle with Time Warner Cable for rights fees?

Murdoch wanted Time Warner to pay fees for Fox Broadcasting Network to keep the bowl games going and American Idol flowing.

Time Warner huffed and puffed and then gave in to what they later described as a fair deal.

Fair deal?

No problem.

The very next day, Time Warner Cable subscribers got hit with the first of what I think will be many rate increases to absorb the costs of the new deal with News Corp.

This sets a precedent for other television networks and it goes beyond the deals that niche cable networks have with cable companies. ESPN subscribers have long been subsiding the sports channels. Murdoch just got his share of it.

Rupert Murdoch should not be easily dismissed for the mission he is on.

Murdoch is vowing to shut down the free content flow that is financially killing The Wall Street Journal, his newspaper empire and other sources of content. He's threatening to do a deal with one Google-type business to act as a gateway for all such content in which he will be paid.

I'm really in to this issue and I've added it to my upcoming Media Solutions Lab agenda because I think all that free content that Internet and mobile users have been getting for is about to become paid content. The party is over.

But here's a slice of reality.

Young people who constitute the next generation expect their content to be free. They steal music, get around paid firewalls with the greatest of ease and are cheap enough to throw nickels around like manhole covers.

They want what they want when they want it. Period.

But I sense a change.

Publishers are on the ropes.

The record industry has tried for ten years to cram a CD into a computer. They've fought for the sanctity of the album as a creative work even though any consumer could tell you such albums come few and far between. Spotify and other streaming music services that look to charge monthly fees for instant "cloud" delivery to mobile devices have not set the world on fire.

Radio groups have given away their content only to find that about 3% of their Internet listeners to terrestrial streams listen online -- a lousy business at best. They don't get it.

TV networks are trying to embrace Hulu and other schemes that give them a cut of the ad revenue but even if they succeed, the pot of dough is not enough to pay off.

A few years back I invited a Warner Music executive speak to one of my music industry classes at USC. She frothed from the mouth in describing how the labels would love to have ISPs (Internet Service Providers) act as a toll collector for their customers to pay for every piece of recorded music every offered.

The students were non-plussed. She said the $5 per month charge would mean a record industry bigger than it had ever been selling albums.

They, on the other hand, didn't want everything that was ever recorded for one low, low monthly fee -- they just wanted what they wanted when they wanted it. Hey, we raised them and the branch didn't fall far from the tree.

Now, I want you to watch this trend develop.

I'm watching it as a publisher.

Would you pay $99 a year to read this blog?

No?

Would 10% of you pay $99 a year for Inside Music Media because if the answer is yes, it constitutes a big business for me. At only 10% of the free circulation.

And for those who do not, consider the issue of micropayments that will become part of our lexicon as the years go on. In other words, you don't pay for this publication for one reason or the other, but you break down every once in a while to access a story you absolutely cannot resist ("John Hogan's Plan to Sell 300 Top Radio Stations" or "Lew Dickey's Private E-Mail Revealed" -- you get the idea). That's $9.99 for the month.

But what about you?

If you are an ex-radio content provider or marketer and you start a publication, site, blog, podcast and get to charge a reasonable amount to people who become addicted to your product or service. In the past there was no real reliable way to collect such payments.

But days before my January 28th Media Solutions Lab Steve Jobs will announce the much anticipated Apple tablet, the reinvented iTunes infrastructure platform and new, cool mobile entertainment devices to make your future brighter. Learn more here.

There are estimates that Apple could sell between 1-10 million tablets in the first year alone. Suddenly, if you are a collector of antiques, you can get the content you want from an expert site acting as an app for a small price.

Actually there is nothing new to this model, that's how it's always been in the past. Want to read Sports Illustrated -- get your money out.

And there is evidence that consumers -- even and especially the next generation -- will spend for applications if they are priced right. That is juxtaposed to their stealing music and enjoying free content for which providers have been previously afraid to charge.

Chris Anderson, author of "Free", doesn't see it my way or Murdoch's way. Anderson thinks content will have to be given away free and then providers can charge for enhanced services or other things. That model hasn't set the world on fire so far.

Murdoch is old and stubborn but I think he's reading the tea leaves right.

The Wall Street Journal cannot exist on declining print revenue or even increasing online ad sales. The Journal is probably the only major publication that has had a paid model from the very beginning and because of the nature of the genre, they get millions of dollars in subscription payments.

Of course, providers are going to have to make their content bullet-proof -- not the stuff a lot of local newspapers pass off as news.

And local radio stations could be in this business while adding video and audio.

And, you -- can be in this business, too even if Lew Dickey, John Hogan or Farid Suleman decided to let you go.

Apple's new platform means democracy.

So keep an eye on this and I'll keep you ahead of the curve and for those of you who are attending my Media Solutions Lab in late January, I'll be very specific about the challenges and opportunities that will become available to you.

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Radio’s Three Stooges

Every New Year’s Eve I create a night of excitement, romance and passion for my beautiful wife, Cheryl, by … well, by …

Okay, by staying home and watching AMC’s Three Stooges marathon.

What a romantic guy, eh?

As far as I am concerned there is no better way to ring in the new year than to continue what I’ve been observing the other 364 days – people making fools of themselves.

My wife who – if you must know – was the first to come up with the nickname “Slogan” for John Hogan (sorry John, it wasn't me) while she was proofreading one of my pieces.

So on New Year's Eve when she said, “why don’t you do a piece about Farid, Dickey and Hogan – the Three Stooges” I was all over it like an Italian eating meatballs in Sunday "gravy".

Can you see why I married this woman?

Sheer genius.

Of course, I hated to desecrate three people I love and respect -- Moe, Larry and Curly, but Cheryl was absolutely right. Do it for the sake of my career.

And she mentioned it on the right day because I had been hearing about last minute firings ramping up to New Year’s Eve by radio's three amateur comedians. I guess they thought they could sneak a few more people onto the unemployment lines without anyone knowing.

Aah, but they underestimate the power of our Repeater Reporters whose mantra seems to be “When Big News Breaks, They Break Up (Laughing)”. So yes, Radio’s Three Stooges never get a day off from their employees telling the rest of the story.

First I must tell you that I am getting reports that Fagreed Suleman is all full of himself again since he accomplished his life’s goal of bankrupting the first and only company he ever ran. He seems proud that he’s got job security with the greedy bastards he sold out to.

So, let's get on with it -- how do I cast these Radio's Three Stooges?

Hogan has to be Moe because he’s the clueless leader of the three failing radio groups that begin with the letter “C” – Clear Channel, Cumulus and Citadel. He gives the orders (but only after he takes his orders from Lee & Bain, the workout artists).

Fagreed is Larry. He even looks like him in a way. And while Larry just seems like a moronic idiot, Fagreed --- well, …

Dickey is Curly. Yuck-Yuck-Yuck-Tuck. Two Harvard grads --- just kidding, I'm kidding! I can just see Dickey doing that mock two hand head salute to all his employees. While the real Lew Dickey has an enviable head of hair compared to Curly, both of them seem to act like there’s no common sense below the scalp.

One of the Three Stooges shorts opens with a shot of the front door of the law offices of “Diller, Dollar and Dolar” and somehow I just see all our present day radio stooges coming up with more ways to make fools out of themselves hiding behind the law.

Another is at the funeral home of “Diggs, Diggs and Bury” – God, isn’t that apropos? If any three radio CEOs have done more to kill off an industry, it has been these clowns.

So what kind of plots could we have?

Well, you don’t have to look past the reality that has made the radio industry like a Fellini movie with lots of fantasy and baroque images. And maybe “baroque” is the wrong word. Perhaps “broke” is a better word than "baroque"for these ailing and bankrupt companies.

That’s it, let’s look to reality for some story lines for Radio’s Three Stooges – real events, real happenings – like ...

• Clear Channel, the Evil Empire, hires a former ENRON Executive Vice President and General Counsel Rob Walls to work the same magic for them that he worked for the bankrupt, corrupt and defunct ENRON. The plot thickens when they hire the replacement for CFO Randall Mays from the disgraced and failed lender “WaMu”.

I tell ya, you can’t make this stuff up.

Okay, maybe that plot is so believable that it is unbelievable since it really happened. Let’s try something lighter, like firings ...

• Two people were fired from Clear Channel Dayton on the eve of the new year – on-air personalities. Not an exciting enough plot line for these three characters? How about the fact that the latest two stealth firings brings the total to a whopping 18 for that cluster alone in the past year. It’s true. But is it funny enough for Radio’s Three Stooges to do something with it now that it's out there and everyone knows?

Here’s a great script possibility for Radio's Three Stooges …

• Clear Channel launches this great new programming initiative called “Rush Radio” in a number of markets – it’s Conservative talk radio for FMs. You know, “Rush Radio” – Rush Limbaugh! Some of the new "Rush Radio" stations may use slogans (John Hogan loves slogans) like "In tough times, it pays to be RIGHT!" Get it? Conservative? Right. Then you grow the plot by putting Rush Radio on some unfortunate Hispanic FMs that Clear Channel has failed to develop and program a local morning show, then Rush, Glenn Beck, Hannity and then repeat the trio. But then Rush is hospitalized with chest pains … no this can’t be real.

Here’s a real comedy of errors for Radio’s Three Stooges …

• On New Year’s even, Citadel fires a newsman then gets that fired newsman a gig at Metro Networks doing news for the very same station he was fired from for – are you ready – less money! No damn it, I’m not making this stuff up.

Well, I can hear the Three Stooges theme music “Three Blind Mice” coming up in the background, so it must be time to go.

The holidays were too long for me to be away from you.

Just when I thought there would be nothing to write about after the two-week break, Fagreed Suleman, Slogan Hogan and Tricky Dickey make fools of themselves yet again.

But this time the joke is really on them.

I know they hang on to my every word – Lew says he reads me only occasionally when my blog is forwarded to him (imagine that e-mail, “Hey Lew, here’s more good publicity for you”).

So if Radio's Three Stooges are reading this today as we start the new year, here it is –

Gentlemen, be afraid, be very afraid – the ad industry is not increasing its revenue in the year ahead but advertisers will be moving more traditional money to new media no matter how low you go on pricing.

I’ve got three seats for you in front of the room at my upcoming Media Solutions Lab if you want them. Some seats are $200 off until they’re gone – good use of corporate funds. Nearby Scottsdale Airport can handle your private planes.

Then listen and take notes.

Just when they thought they dodged the bullet to escape bankruptcy, the bleeding starts again.

These three may do the impossible and make 2009 look good.

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24 Days Left Until My Media Solutions Lab.

And some seats have been put aside for a $200 Preregistration Discount until they are sold (includes registration, breakfast, lunch and breaks). Register now to claim the $200 discount seats. Lock it in here.

Then search for a wide variety of hotel rooms and pricing options up to the minute, here.

This is a face-to-face interactive learning session divided into 14 meaningful modules. It will not be recorded for rebroadcast nor will you be able to record it. There will be no hucksters, sponsors or speakers with an agenda. You will personalize your involvement and come away with an action plan.

We’re waiting for Steve Jobs to drop the bomb that his mobile Apple tablet will be available – possibly as soon as the first quarter and it will not be enough to just find ways to reconfigure terrestrial radio.

There is mobile media, social networking, podcasting and webcasting but not the way radio companies are doing it.

The Solutions lab is about solutions.

Sample some of the program:

Future Trends

What will happen to radio by next December? What about the music business? The battle between on-demand and cable TV. Mobile content predictions. The shape of things to come in specifics. I worked on this over the weekend and so far there are 14 future trends you need to know to get a leg up on the changes ahead in the media business.

The New Radio

If you’re expecting a lecture on the People Meter or strategic ways to squeeze more listening out of existing programming, you’re aiming too low. Of course, we'll deal with ratings but you won't hear the same things everyone else is telling you. There is so much more. You'll learn if and under what circumstances a terrestrial brand can be ported to the digital world.

Improve Your Digital DNA

Think like Apple CEO Steve Jobs. It’s not a pipe dream. I’ll actually isolate his outstanding skills in reading the marketplace so you can see which ones you have, the ones you want to expand and the remaining that you’d like to acquire. No pie in the sky – this is hands on. Remember, Jobs is 50ish. You’ll learn that old dogs learn new tricks, they study the marketplace and provide consumers with exactly what they want and will support. We'll have some fun together learning how to let go of the less useful tools we've been accustomed to using and grasp a chance to acquire new age tools with people, ideas and marketing.

Make Money in Podcasting

You can be up and running in 30 days – I’m going to share what I tell clients looking to establish moneymaking brands in podcasting. What to avoid. How not to imitate radio because radio formatics on podcasting is not your strongest suit. Then, on to using social networking to grow your new business and finally monetize it. And be ready when I tell you that you can make money in podcasts without running commercials. You’ll get it here.

Fixing the Mistakes of Webcasting

Don’t follow terrestrial broadcasters – they’ve got it all wrong when it comes to webcasting. See, they want the web to be another transmitter – it’s a disease with them. But you’ll get the cure – I’ll show you ways to use the Internet that they are not doing and once the shock wears off you’ll want to run not walk to be the first ones in. And although royalty issues are a problem, I’ll show you how to deal with them. I'll set up a few parameters and then you'll brainstorm with me. While we're at it, you'll see how to use the brainstorming format I developed when I was a professor at the University of Southern California. I'm sure you'll use it with your people once you get the hang of it.

Help Advertisers Go Direct

Another business waiting to happen. I’ll outline where the opportunities are. We see big advertisers dabbling in direct access now but I contend this is a local business, too. If you’re a station willing to change, it’s for you. If you used to work for a station or are an ad agency, it’s a new business. You own the content and build the pathway. This is not just for the youth market. It’s for all ages, all markets.

New Media Businesses You Can Start

Start writing – and then ask all the questions you can. There are some businesses that are begging to be started and they don’t take a lot of money. Just brains and vision and hard work. Plus, a plan. I’ll show you one for each of the three businesses I will isolate.

How To Start a Business for the Apple Tablet

We're going to devote some time to this topic because I believe the Apple tablet is going to be the iPod/iPhone of the decade to come. A mobile commerce platform through the iTunes store that Apple is revamping right now. I'll give you the latest on what the device is, what it can be and how you can ready businesses for it. The Apple tablet through the iTunes store is a robust infrastructure that you can get in on whether you’re a radio brand, former radio executives or talent or an entrepreneur.

Make Money Publishing

While newspapers fret over lost circulation, you'll use those skills you picked up in an earlier session thinking like Apple. Did you see where even newspaper websites are now losing readers? But they are sitting on something powerful and they don’t even know it. Too worried about failure and declining revenues. I'll show you a zip-code inspired way to create your first, second, third (and so on) cash flow stream. Your expenses will be in content -- not delivery. Perfect for ex-radio execs who want to use their programming and marketing skills. Hint: the new publishing will be inhaled, heard, seen and read. More to come.

Micropayments

You can get them. I’m going to get them. I'll tell you how I'm going to do it and how you can, too. There is a debate that is relevant about free vs paid. Rupert Murdoch thinks he can get paid for the online content of his newspaper empire and I agree with him. Chris Anderson ("Long Tail" and "Free") says the best you can do is give it all away for free and then charge for paid additional content. I disagree (I never much liked his long tail theory of the music industry, either). So how does this affect you? Got an idea, a talent, a skill, a topic -- if it is good enough someone may pay a fair price to access it. It's happening now. This flies in the face of everything we know about young people and the Internet. Then again, buying Apple apps flies in the face of ... well, you get it. And so does the monthly TV package Apple is reportedly considering. This could be a business for you or your company.

Mobile Money

Radio may be content to miss the mobile revolution, but you don’t have to. If you have an idea, a personality, a talent – you can channel it to the new mobile media world that is evolving. There are rules and pitfalls and we’ll discuss them. You can ask questions and gain insights. Ask me about how to make mobile users go nuts like cats do when you throw them some cat nip.

Social Networking Beyond Facebook

In fact, people are getting pissed off at the blatant commercial uses of Facebook and Twitter. Facebook has tightened its controls for users to keep out unwanted riff raff. Hey, social networking is being redefined and I'll show you some of the ways you can use it. In fact, this is one area you had better be skilled in for over the next ten years social networking will drive everything.

Reinventing You

I’m publishing a book on this topic in 2010. I’ve gleaned a lot of insights from my teaching of the next generation at USC. Basically, if you buy that our world is changing (and few would argue that) then it follows that we must change ---acquire new skill sets, discard less useful tools. You’ll get a preview of the concepts that will help you reinvent yourself for your career and even your life.

Leave with an Action Plan

Once you decide what you want to take from this day, I want you to leave with a plan of action to make changes, explore new opportunities, acquire useful and additional skills.

This Media Solutions Lab is really different. Not a convention. It’s a fast moving, fun, eye opening seven hours and I promise you’ll never see things the same old way again.

My abilities and yours together is what makes this day special and rewarding.

There is a “pre-registration” price category on the Media Solutions Lab website. It’s like the airlines (except we serve food and let you use the bathrooms for free). A limited number of seats at a $200 discount.

I know it isn't easy for the people who need this day the most to afford it. But please consider that sitting out the future even for another year is not an option.

Claim one of them asap here.

I can hardly wait to be with you and help get your creative juices flowing

I hope you invest in yourself and accept my invitation and meet me in person January 28th at the Westin Kierland for my Media Solutions Lab. Register now.

Damascus - Axis of Evil Tour!

I travel a lot as a working musician, and if there’s one thing that travelling teaches you it’s that nothing is black and white. This was once again brought home to me on my recent visit to Damascus, one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities on earth, and the capital city of Syria, part of George Bush’s ‘Axis of Evil’ (the other members of George’s trio are Iran and North Korea). Long known as an implacable enemy of Israel (who annexed the Golan Heights from them in 1967), and therefore by extension an enemy of America and by further extension, the ‘free world’, Syria has been demonised in the West. So when I told people I would be going there with my family for a holiday over the Christmas/New Year period they reacted with horrified amazement. I might as well have said I was going to Baghdad or Afghanistan - as far as they were concerned Syria represented the same level of danger and madness, and therefore visiting Syria for a ‘holiday’ provided proof, if proof were needed, that when it comes to choosing holiday destinations I was barking mad.



But as I said, things are never black and white, and in fact Syria is a very safe destination for a tourist to go to, with almost no street crime of any kind (if only we could say the same in Europe or America.....), and is a country with an incredible mixture of races and religions living in it. One of the misapprehensions we in the west have about Syria is that it's a fundamentalist Muslim country, but it's actually one of the most secular and possibly the most, (officially at least), religiously tolerant in the Middle East. This is mainly due to the fact that the ruling regime are all Alawites - a minority Islamic sect that's looked on as being heretic by many fundamentalist Muslims. As part of protecting their own situation they are very heavy on religious tolerance.



About 15% of the population are Christians, and there are Shias, Sunnis, Druze, Orthodox Christians, Armenian Christians, and many others there, as well, as believe it or not - Jews! There are two synagogues in Damascus, though there's not a big Syrian Jewish population any more (most left in 1994 as part of an agreement with the US – one of the conditions worked out at the Madrid Peace Conference) . So though the Syrian regime hates the Israelis, they don't (officially at least), hate Jewish people per se. Having said that, it’s probably not an easy place to be Jewish in, but the fact that Jewish people live in the capital city of Israel’s most implacable enemy, and that Syria is a police state that enforces religious tolerance, shows again how many shades of grey there can be, and how little is black and white.



Marian Shrine, Christian Quarter, Damascus


On arrival in Damascus it was immediately interesting to compare this place to other places I’ve been in the Middle East. One thing that’s particularly noticeable is the lack of tourists around – Syria’s reputation, (undeserved), as a hot bed of radical Muslim fundamentalism keeps westerners away. As a result, you get almost no hassle at all to buy things, or to go into shops, or to take taxis – people leave you alone to do your own thing. Which is COMPLETELY different to Morocco or Cairo, or even Turkey (at least in the tourist areas) – because they depend so much on tourism, they see tourists as being like ATMs, so everywhere you go they try and talk you into buying this or doing that, or going into this restaurant, or that carpet shop etc. - which can get very wearing after a while. But in Syria this is not the case, and on our first day we went into the huge covered market and were amazed not to get the usual calls of ‘please sir’, or ‘this way sir!’, or ‘you want carpet/jacket/shoes/etc. sir?’ - we were allowed to wander around without being importuned even once, which was great – it allowed you to stop and look at things for as long as you want without keeping watch from the corner of your eye for yet another salesman trying to drag you into his shop. Very cool.



The second thing that was striking was the variety of races, cultures and religions represented out on the street. Within the first ten minutes of being in the Souq, we saw women covered from head to toe in the black Chador of Shia Islam, women in designer jeans and jewellery, men in traditional Bedouin costume, Mullahs, a Christian priest, men in business suits, women wearing head scarves - but the colours of which were carefully matched with their earrings and makeup. Again the shades of grey concept was fully in evidence - we saw one man bargaining in a spice shop in the souq, he had a Muslim skullcap on, a full beard, and a jacket, the back of which bore the legend ‘Colorado Boy’s Ranch’.



It said in the guidebook that Syria was one of the friendliest places to visit in the Middle East – we found the guidebook to be unreliable on several fronts, (maps and restaurant recommendations in particular), but they were right about this. The Middle East is in general a very welcoming region, with an incredible tradition of hospitality, and after much travel in the region I’ve come to expect this kind of thing. But the Syrians take friendliness and hospitality into another realm – this welcome we got everywhere we went was truly remarkable. Within one minute of being in the Souq, we had asked and been given permission to take photographs of two sieve makers, who then asked us where we were from, welcomed us and offered us sweets from a bag they produced from under the counter. Later we went for a coffee and were approached by two young guys who again asked us where we were from, told us all about themselves (students – one about to go off to Germany to study for seven years), asked about our impressions of Syria and made suggestions as to things we could do and restaurants to check out. Before leaving they gave us their mobile numbers and asked us to call them if we needed any help or assistance while in Damascus. Again and again we were met with kindness, friendliness and hospitality – people would shout ‘welcome’ to us as we went past and wave. The very scarcity of western visitors to Damascus seems to make the Damascenes all the more appreciative of those who do venture in, and the combination of friendliness and yet at the same time not being hassled into buying things makes this city unique in my experience of travels in the Middle East.

Not that I want to give the impression that Syria is some paradise on earth either. The people of Syria may be wonderful, but the same can’t be said for the regime that rules it. Make no mistake about it, this is a police state, where any political dissent is ruthlessly crushed, and no opposition of any kind is permitted. President Assad – whose slightly geeky features are plastered everywhere – got 97% of the vote in the last election, which wasn’t as good a result as it sounds when you consider that he was the sole candidate! Syria has been under ‘Emergency Law’ which suspends the basic rights of its citizens, since 1962. Censorship is widespread – in fact I had to wait to get back from there to do this post since Blogger is blocked in Syria – a fate that’s shared there by other well known websites such as Youtube and Facebook. When the current president Bashar Al-Assad took over from his father Hafez, there was hope that things would change, but they haven’t – they’ve tried to open up the economy more and you see progressive kinds of things like the introduction of a partial smoking ban (in the Middle East!) coming next year. But still, say anything publicly against Bashar and you’d better get yourself ready for a visit from the secret police and a vacation that will definitely differ from the one we just had............



A Shi'ite restaurant with a painting of Iran's President Ahmedinijad, Syria's President Assad and the Iraqi Shia radical cleric Mokhtada Al-Sadr displayed over the door. 'The Rogues Gallery Restaurant' perhaps?

Old City, Ummayad Mosque and the incompatibility of Chadors and Escalators......




Damascus is divided into two parts, the Old City, and everywhere else. The new part of the city is fairly nondescript - apartment blocks, shops, seething traffic which seems to operate on the chaos principle, (no road markings on roads wide enough to take cars four abreast resulting in a weaving mass of horn-tooting vehicles), fairly poor air quality and little of architectural merit to attract the eye or delay the casual traveller.

The old city on the other hand is an extraordinary place, a UNESCO World Heritage site, and is essentially a mediaeval Arab city, complete with a maze of narrow lanes, tiny shops, bustling street life, and a massive souq right in the middle of it. When you enter this part of the city you really feel like you’re in the Middle East.


And this feeling of being, for a Westerner at least, somewhere very different, is never stronger than when you approach the massive Ummayad Mosque which takes up a sizeable chunk of the old city. This is one of the most famous and venerated mosques in the Islamic world, attracting pilgrims and visitors for hundreds of years. In my own travels I’ve visited quite a few famous mosques in Cairo, and especially in Istanbul. I’ve always enjoyed the atmosphere in these places — there’s something different about the feeling that one gets in a big mosque as opposed to the atmosphere of one of Christianity’s massive cathedrals. With the latter I always get a feeling of heaviness in the architecture — you can almost feel the weight of the building as it towers over you. The mosques on the other hand — particularly the domed mosques of the Ottomans — have a lightness about them, almost a feeling as if being in a huge tent. The carpets which cover the floors of these buildings accentuate that feeling, especially since you are required to take off your shoes before entering a mosque - the feeling of walking around on a carpet in your stocking feet helps foster an intimacy with the interior of the building that one just doesn’t get when walking around a large Christian cathedral. The fact too that it is quite acceptable to sit on the floor of these buildings, rest your back against the wall, and contemplate the architecture adds to this feeling of intimacy.



The Ummayad Mosque has an extraordinarily beautiful courtyard — appropriately massive, and covered in the kind of gilded calligraphy that you often encounter in places like this. As you enter it through the main gate, a huge square opens up in front of you, you get a sense of the importance of this building to the faithful, who constantly pour in and remind you of the myriad nationalities and races that are encompassed by the Islamic world — Malaysians, Arabs, Africans, people from the Subcontinent, Turks etc.



On entering the mosque itself, I was actually a little disappointed. Yes it’s a huge building, with some beautiful calligraphy and tiling, and it has a beautiful section which houses the Mihrab , but architecturally I found to be quite disappointing — a kind of giant rectangular box, with little of the grace and airiness of the domed mosques of Istanbul. I first went to the Suleymaniye Mosque in Istanbul in 1986, and in a way it kind of spoiled me for all others! I knew the reputation of the Ummayad, so I was expecting something architecturally spectacular, but found instead something that was almost ordinary — relatively speaking at least.




The mosque attracts many Shia pilgrims, especially from Iran. You can see them arriving in groups, the women clearly identifiable by their head-to-toe black Chadors, which, enhanced by the fact that often all you can see of them is their nose, gives them the appearance of a flock of crows shuffling along towards the mosque entrance. But before they can reach the haven of the mosque, if approaching from the souq, they have to negotiate an urban hazard — an escalator!



We couldn’t figure out what the problem with escalators was for these women, whether it was because they were not used to them, (a lot of these pilgrims are quite probably people from rural areas of Iran), or because they were worried that their Chadors would catch in the mechanism, or whether it was something else. But whatever it was, they definitely had issues with escalators! Time and again we would see them teetering on the brink of jumping onto the escalator, like people standing on the edge of a cliff — irresolute, unable to decide whether to jump or not, before finally making the great leap into the unknown and tottering unsteadily on the first step before grabbing the rail and hanging on for dear life. On one occasion a woman actually lost her footing and began toppling backwards down the escalator as it went up, only a despairing grasp by her husband of her sleeve-end prevented her from falling backwards and hitting the back of her head off the iron steps. It would seem that modern technology in the form of escalators, and Chador-clad Shia women don’t mix.

“Avatar”, Hollywood, and the War On Terror



It’s always interesting to go to the movies in a different country, and especially in a different culture to your own. We once had a great time at a Tamil movie in Madras, despite not understanding a word of what was going on. But the vibe in the cinema was great, with the audience getting involved in the on-screen action in a way that you never see in the West. Walking through the new part of Damascus one day, we came across a new cinema — a real western style, multiscreen place, that was showing “Avatar”, and we decided to go and and get a Syrian cinematic experience. The movie was in English with Arabic subtitles, and though the audience was made up of obviously middle-class, westernised people, mostly in their early 20s, their behaviour in the cinema was quite different to an equivalent audience in a western cinema. As soon as the lights went down chatter broke out amongst the entire audience, and the film was punctuated throughout by giggling and chatting in a way that would draw much irritated shushing in an Irish cinema at least.



So far so good, but then something happened on the screen that gives a very real perspective on how things can be seen in different parts of the world. Those familiar with the story of “Avatar” will know that its premise is that invaders from Earth come to a far away planet in order to exploit its mineral resources for their own use. The fact that the people from ‘Earth’ were to a man, and a woman, Americans made the obvious parallel of the Western exploitation of the oil wealth of the Middle East, and the wars and political shenanigans used by the West to control energy sources emanating from there, all the more obvious. And it began to dawn on me as I sat there in the dark, that some of this made uncomfortable viewing for a Westerner sitting in an audience of Arabs.



But this feeling of slight discomfort with the storyline was ratcheted up several notches when the bad guy in the film — a stereotype GI Joe kind of guy dressed in American military fatigues — announces to a military briefing, “We will defeat the Hostiles - we will meet terror with terror!”, his description of what he was about to unleash on the native people included the phrase “shock and awe” -- the phrase coined by Rumsfeld to describe what America was going to do to the Iraqis — a people who lived only a couple of hundred kilometres from where we were sitting in the cinema. The phrase ‘we will meet terror with terror’ was greeted by an audible intake of breath by the audience in the cinema, and I was suddenly conscious and that we were three Westerners sitting in an audience of about 1000 Syrians, whose country has been demonised by the leading military power in the West, and were watching a film in which a stereotypically macho American Marine is about to launch his helicopter gunships on the native population. It’s not that I felt that we were in any danger of any kind, but when you watch something like that in Damascus, it definitely gives you a different perspective than if you watched it in Dun Laoghaire! When GI Joe bad guy was eventually killed in the film, the audience erupted into wild cheering and clapping — which given the context in which most of the people were watching that film, was hardly surprising.

All in all we spent five days in Damascus, which is probably about enough — the city doesn’t have much more in it that would keep the tourist occupied for much longer than that. It was an interesting and fascinating experience to be in a country that is often seen as a pariah in the West, and yet to be met with only friendliness and kindness, to see a very deep culture, to see a myriad of people, races, and religions living together harmoniously, and, oh yes, did I mention the great food!?